Description/Abstract
This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the percentage of young adults is a key determinant of violent crime trends, while the incarceration rate drives property crime trends. These findings, which differ from standard two-way fixed effects analysis results, provide a compelling explanation for the sharp decline in U.S. crime rates since the early 1990s.
Document Type
Working Paper
Date
3-18-2026
Keywords
Latent trend, nonstationary panel, crime rate, two-way fixed effects, common factors, panel cointegration
Language
English
Series
Working Papers Series
Disciplines
Econometrics | Economic Policy | Economics | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration | Public Policy
ISSN
1525-3066
Recommended Citation
Lee, Yoonseok; Phillips, Peter C.; Song, Suyong; and Sul, Donggyu, "Identifying Common Trend Determinants in Panel Data" (2026). Center for Policy Research. 528.
https://surface.syr.edu/cpr/528
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Included in
Econometrics Commons, Economic Policy Commons, Public Policy Commons
Additional Information
CPR Working Paper No. 290