Description/Abstract
I estimate how exposure to natural disasters in childhood shapes earnings and schooling later in life, using newly assembled county-date disaster records dating back to 1951 linked to residential histories in the NLSY79. I compare adult outcomes for children who are born in the same county but due to disaster timing experience different amounts of exposure, finding that severe and repeat disasters reduce earnings. I show that school-age disaster exposure drives long-run harm: exposure between ages 5 and 10 reduces educational attainment, while exposure between ages 10 and 15 reduces adult earnings. Finally, Black individuals suffer larger earnings losses than White peers, pointing to inequality in disaster exposure, and suggesting that disaster exposure may have contributed substantially to the racial wealth gap.
Document Type
Working Paper
Date
3-12-2026
Keywords
Natural disaster, children, racial inequality, regional economics
Language
English
Series
Working Papers Series
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to Maria Zhu, Alex Rothenberg, Thomas Pearson, and Hugo Jales for their invaluable guidance on this project. I also appreciate the contributions of the participants of the Center for Policy Research’s Labor and Public Economics Group and Education and Social Policy Workshop. Additionally, I thank Paul Rhode and his research team for sharing early disaster data, as well as Leah Platt Boustan, Matthew Kahn, Maria Yanguas, and again, Paul Rhode for providing decade-level disaster data. The ideas in this paper are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Disciplines
Economic Policy | Economics | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration | Race and Ethnicity | Regional Economics
ISSN
1525-3066
Recommended Citation
Kaplan, Lucas, "Reared in Disaster: The Long-Run Harm from Childhood Storm Exposure" (2026). Center for Policy Research. 527.
https://surface.syr.edu/cpr/527
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
