Date of Submission
Winter 11-11-2017
Department
Economics
Faculty Advisor
Perry Singleton
Keywords
Kidnap, Colombia, Survival Analysis, FARC, ELN, Kidnapping
Subject Categories
International Relations | Other Economics
Abstract
This paper examines the effect of victim and perpetrator characteristics on the probability of kidnapping outcomes in Colombia from 1970-2010. The data is analyzed using linear regressions and competing risks survival analysis. I find that ransom amounts had very little effect on the probability of ransom payments, indicating a highly inelastic market for the return of loved ones. Sex had a small impact on the probability of being killed in captivity and of being rescued. Childhood improved a victim's chance of rescue by 21.3%. Outcomes also varied by perpetrator group. Captives of criminal networks were 21.5% more likely to be rescued than FARC captives. Paramilitary groups were 10.6% more likely to kill captives than FARC and M-19 captives were 18.1% more likely to be rescued than FARC captives. These results can be used to better understand the decision-making process of kidnappers with an aim towards informing the tactics and policies of security forces and policymakers.
Recommended Citation
Suling, Wyatt D., "The Impact of Kidnapping Characteristics on the Probability of Outcomes in Colombia 1970-2010" (2017). Maxwell School – Distinction Theses (Undergraduate). 6.
https://surface.syr.edu/distinction/6
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 License
Spanish (Original) Dataset
CODIFICACIÓN_CC_2013.xls (165 kB)
Spanish (Original) Codebook
Base Secuestro Pública (Public Kidnappings Data).xlsx (39227 kB)
English (Translated) Dataset
Codebook.xlsx (67 kB)
English (Translated) Codebook