Description/Abstract
Grade retention policies create incentives for students to make adequate progress ahead of evaluation. The threat of retention thus has the potential to affect all students’ academic outcomes, increasing achievement especially among students with test scores near the retention policy’s threshold. By using unique data from Ohio which allows us to implement a regression discontinuity design, we find that students exposed to the threat of retention in Grade 3 experience larger learning gains than students who are not under retention threat. Gains in Grade 3 English Language Arts (ELA) are 0.077 SD and although effects partially fade over time, positive effects persist through Grade 7. Positive and lasting effects are detected across cohorts, student groups, and schools. We also examine non-test outcomes, finding reductions in student absences but limited evidence of effects on disciplinary incidents or the probability of retention beyond Grade 3. Exploration of possible mechanisms suggests that assignment to targeted literacy interventions contributes to the retention threat effect. We also show that retention threat effects are largest in schools facing stronger accountability pressures and with more capacity to respond to accountability incentives. This paper offers novel evidence of the broad effects of retention policy and provides results to inform early literacy policy initiatives, as many states debate the role of retention mandates in such initiatives.
Document Type
Working Paper
Date
7-15-2026
Keywords
Grade retention, accountability, early literacy, policy evaluation
Language
English
Series
Working Papers Series
Acknowledgements
We thank Deven Carlson, David Figlio, Ying Shi, Vlad Kogan, Evan Riehl, Michah Rothbart, anonymous reviewers, and participants in the APPAM, AEFP, American University, and Syracuse University seminars for their helpful feedback. This study uses data provided by the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce. We thank Eben Dowell, Candi Patterson, and L.M. Clinton for their assistance. All findings and conclusions are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not represent the views of the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce. This study was approved by the Syracuse University Institutional Review Board (Protocol #23-067).
Disciplines
Economic Policy | Economics | Education Policy | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration | Public Policy
ISSN
1525-3066
Recommended Citation
Souders, Sarah and Bifulco, Robert, "The Effect of Retention Threat on Student Learning Gains: Evidence from Ohio" (2026). Center for Policy Research. 531.
https://surface.syr.edu/cpr/531
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Included in
Economic Policy Commons, Economics Commons, Education Policy Commons, Public Policy Commons
