This study uses recurrence probabilities to generate forecasts of the volume of multifamily mortgage originations for the period 1992-2002. The approach concentrates on predicting the volume of property sales using the baseline of a multifamily prepayment hazard estimation to generate the predicted cohort-specific proportion of calendar sales in a given year. The forecast for the volume of originations depends strongly on the definition of the relevant mortgage population. A definition that excludes assumptions but otherwise includes all properties selling between 1971 and 1991 in which a first mortgage was used in its acquisition yields a forecast of $47.2 billion for 1997. A more restrictive definition that approximates the pool of loans covered by HMDA leads to a forecast of $23.5 billion for 1997.

Document Type

Working Paper






This paper is based upon research partially supported by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.


Metropolitan Studies Program Series


Helpful comments were received from Dixie Blackley, Harold Bunce, Amy Crews, John Gardner, and William Reeder.


Economic Policy | Economics | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration | Public Policy


0732 507X

Additional Information

Metropolitan studies program series paper no.171


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Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.



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