College Research Center Copyright (c) 2013 Syracuse University All rights reserved. http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter Recent documents in College Research Center en-us Fri, 15 Feb 2013 01:43:22 PST 3600 Child-feeding practices and child overweight perceptions of family day care providers caring for preschool-age children http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/6 http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/6 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 11:20:28 PST Lynn S. Brann Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/5 http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/5 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 11:20:26 PST The betting market for the NHL is investigated using actual betting percentages on favorites and underdogs from real sportsbooks. Sportsbooks do not appear to attempt to price to balance the book as betting percentages are not proportional to set odds. As in the NFL and NBA, bettors are shown to have a strong preference for favorites and road favorites in particular. Simple strategies of betting against significant imbalances toward the favorite are shown to generate positive returns. Although not pricing to balance the book, sportsbooks do not appear to price to exploit known bettor biases in all cases. Clear bettor behavioral biases for road favorites are not priced into the odds as the prices set in these cases appear to be a forecast of game outcomes. Pricing as a forecast may ensure long-run viability for the sportsbook as it discourages entry into this market by informed traders and still allows the sportsbook to capture its commission on losing bets over time.

]]> Rodney Paul et al. Using Actual Betting Percentages to Analyze Sportsbook Behavior: The Canadian and Arena Football Leagues http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/4 http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/4 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 11:20:22 PST Sportsbook behavior is tested for the Canadian and Arena Football Leagues using real sportsbook betting percentages from on-line sportsbooks. The balanced book hypothesis of the traditional sportsbook models does not appear to hold for these leagues, as favorites and overs attract more than 50 percent of the betting dollars. Although there is some slight evidence toward shading the line in these directions, there is also no overwhelming evidence supporting the Levitt (2004) hypothesis, as sportsbooks do not appear to be actively pricing to maximize profits. In general, the results seem more consistent with the sportsbook pricing as a forecast, content with earning their commission on losing bets as simple strategies win about 50 percent of the time.

]]> Rodney Paul et al. Regional Differences in Fan Preferences for Minor League Hockey: The AHL http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/3 http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/3 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 11:20:20 PST Regional differences in fan preferences for minor league hockey in the United States are explored using simple linear regression models. The top-level minor league for the NHL, the American Hockey League (AHL), was studied for the 2008-09 season. Key attributes with respect to attendance are studied for hockey including population, income per capita, promotions, scoring, and winning percentage. In addition, a key socio-economic variable, fighting is also investigated. Major differences are found for fan preferences across geographic regions in relation to population, income per capita, a variety of promotions, and team success. In addition, fan reaction to fighting tends to differ greatly by region, with it having a positive effect in the Mid-Atlantic (East Division) and Western (West Division) regions, but having a negative and significant effect in the New England-area (Atlantic division).

An attendance model for the top minor hockey league in North America, the American Hockey League (AHL), is specified and a variety of factors which may influence fan attendance are studied. Game-by-game attendance figures were gathered from the AHL website, www.theahl.com, along with the day of the game, team records, team scoring, and per-game fight data. Demographic data were gathered for the cities which host AHL franchises and, in addition, promotional data from individual team websites and pocket calendars were collected and converted into dummy variables representing different types of promotions. Upon gathering the data, it became apparent that substantial regional differences appeared to exist in fan preferences for certain attributes. Therefore, regressions for the overall league and for each individual division, to account for regional differences, were run and the results are presented.

A focus is placed on a variety of factors to attempt to determine what influences fan decisions to attend AHL hockey games. One key variable examined is the role of fighting, which has been explored in the NHL before in Jones, Stewart, and Sunderman (1996) and Paul (2003). In these papers, fighting was shown to have a positive and significant effect on attendance. The importance of winning, which may or may not be as important at a minor-league level as compared to a major-league level, was also studied on a game-by-game basis throughout the season. A proxy for in-game excitement, scoring in these games, was also tested. Promotions were also studied which include events, merchandise giveaways, reduced food and beverage prices, group nights, etc. These data were used to determine how much of an impact, if any, these promotions have on attendance.

Upon gathering and studying the data, it became apparent that there are some key regional differences in fan preferences for AHL games. To illustrate this, the regression model for the AHL as a whole is also run for each of the four divisions. The four divisions consist of the Eastern Division (Mid- Atlantic Region), Atlantic Division (New England), North Division (Canada, Western NY, Ohio), and West Division (Midwest US – both Northern and Southern). A full listing of the team cities and their division is given in Appendix I at the conclusion of this paper. These regional distinctions illustrate where certain performance-based variables and demographic variables differ for AHL Fans in relation to attendance.

The paper proceeds as follows. A simple game-by-game attendance model for the AHL is set up and the dependent and independent variables are explained. The regression results are presented and explained in the context of their relationship with per-game attendance. Regional differences are then explored by division. Discussion of the results and conclusions occur in the final section.

]]> Rodney Paul et al. Sport Sovereignty at Bay: The Impact of Globalization and the Multi-National Sport Enterprise on the Westphalian-Based International Sport Structure http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/2 http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/2 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 11:20:15 PST The existing framework for international sport is based on the guiding principles of the Peace of Westphalia of 1648. The Peace of Westphalia promoted sovereignty, self-determination, equality between states, and non-intervention of one state in the internal affairs of another state, and it has served as the basis for international relations for several centuries. Vernon observed that “the advanced world, carried ebulliently on the crest of a technological revolution in transportation and communication, has absentmindedly set up a virile system of international institutions and relationships that sit alongside the system of nation-states.” Vernon’s observation captures the essence of the existing international sport structure, where the nation state is the defining characteristic and criterion for membership in international sport organizations (for example, International Olympic Committee) and participation in international sporting events (for example, FIFA World Cup team inclusion, Olympic athlete inclusion). Miller et al. argued that many have mistakenly predicted the demise of the nation-state and Westphalian sovereignty and the rise of international sovereignty over the past century, but admit that the nation-state has lost its potency and relevance and increasingly struggles to control the impact of cross-border flows stimulated by transnational forces.2 Challenges to Westphalian sovereignty in sport have increased with the growing power and influence of the Multinational Sport Enterprise (MNSE) and the forces of globalization. MNSEs are “international or cross-border entities which are of the existing interstate system firmly rooted in national territorial jurisdiction.”3 Appadurai defined globalization as a series of diverse, fluid, and unpredictable flows that include the movement of capital, technology, people, and mediated images.4 Professional sport clubs such as the Los Angeles Lakers (basketball) and FC Barcelona (football) as well as the leagues of which they are members, the National Basketball Association and the Spanish La Liga respectively, are all in fact MNSEs. These organizations exemplify the forces of globalization influencing sport; when FC Barcelona won the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) championship in 2009 playing a “European style” of football, only eleven of its twenty four players were Spanish. Its victory over English Premier League club, Manchester United, which was owned by an American, was viewed by 206 million people worldwide. Coupled with the attempts by athletes and countries to circumvent and/or benefit from eligibility requirements for Westphalian-based international sport competitions and the willingness of those events to offer MNSEs and athletes a global marketing platform, the Barcelona-Manchester United match was an illustration of the rise of the MNSE and globalized sports and a portent for the decline in the power and influence of the Westphalian-based sport structure

]]> Rick Burton et al. Similarities in fan preferences for minor-league baseball across the American southeast http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/1 http://surface.syr.edu/researchcenter/1 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 11:20:13 PST Three Minor League Baseball leagues across the Southeastern United States are studied in order to determine what drives fan attendance. Individual game attendance and game characteristics are examined for three leagues located in the American southeast, the Florida State League, the Southern League, and the South Atlantic League. Despite the three leagues encompassing different levels of play (from A to AA), the determinants of attendance are similar across leagues. Factors affecting attendance such as winning percentage, weather conditions, local income and population, and individual game promotions, such as fireworks, are explored.

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